The balance of power in the Council has shifted since July 2025. Under the Danish presidency, a new text — largely inspired by the 2024 Belgian and Hungarian compromises — puts back on the table mandatory scanning (including before encryption) and a risk categorization by service. An internal read-out of the “law enforcement” working party meeting of 11 July 2025, leaked by netzpolitik.org, sums it up: a majority of countries “can live” with the Danish proposal, a blocking minority remains, and a few key undecideds (Germany, France, Belgium, Finland, Luxembourg, Estonia, Czechia, etc.) carry a lot of weight.
Visually, the July 2025 map published by MEP Patrick Breyer shows at a glance which governments are “supportive”, “opposed/neutral”, or “undecided”. It’s an activist snapshot but useful to locate your country.
Countries explicitly “supportive” on 11/07 (or positive about the Danish text) … Italy, Spain, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus, Croatia, Sweden (government support, parliamentary green light required), Denmark (author of the text). France said it was ready to “support in principle” the text, notably renewal of the transitional regime, which currently places it among the rather supportive. Portugal is “very positive” but keeps reservations about the encryption part.
“Opposed” countries (or formally critical on key points) … Poland (rejects mandatory scanning and inclusion of E2EE, flags cybersecurity risks and the invalidity of forced “consent”), Austria (bound by a firm parliamentary stance against CSS and weakening encryption), Netherlands (strong concerns over “detection orders” and CSS). Slovenia and Luxembourg express serious doubts about proportionality and client-side scanning.
“Undecided / under review” (or internally split) … Germany (new coalition still arbitrating, historically opposed to E2EE scanning), Belgium (“difficult” domestic politics on encryption after its 2024 compromise), Estonia (internal split security vs. data protection on CSS), Finland (text “rather problematic”, under review), Czechia (election season, position pending), Ireland (welcomes cybersecurity safeguards but remains cautious), Slovakia (positive on ambition but open to counter-arguments), Romania (not cited in that specific read-out). These nuances matter: the Council Legal Service still considers CSS contrary to fundamental rights, which weighs on the fence-sitters.
Bottom line: adoption hinges on a handful of capitals (Paris, Berlin, Brussels, Helsinki, Luxembourg, Prague, Dublin). And even among the “supportive”, several national parliaments could impose safeguards. For a broad overview, see the July 2025 map (indicative).